Further interest hikes anticipated going into late summer

Quick Take

The impending meeting of the Federal Reserve on July 26th is highly likely to culminate in a further increase of 25 basis points (bps) to the interest rate, as suggested by a formidable 99.8% probability. Presently, the target rate is positioned between 500-525 bps, and this forecasted adjustment is set to raise the federal funds rate to span from 525-550 bps.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s meeting slated for September 20th is also garnering significant attention. Current projections indicate an 18% chance of an extra rate hike at this juncture, a probability that appears to be on an upward trajectory.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to deliver its decision a day following the Federal Reserve’s verdict. The signs also point towards a 25 bps rate hike, set to augment their current interest rate to 425 bps.

Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)

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