Vision document may come in July after economy survey in January

Chief Economic Advisor V Ananth Nageswaran, like some of his predecessors, is exploring the possibility of leaving his own unique mark in the Economic Survey, which is a matter of public discussion. For this, a similar document can be presented in July after the presentation of the Economic Review of 2022-23 on 31 January.

Business Standard believes that the document will act as a medium-term vision document for the Indian economy and will include the Chief Economic Adviser (and his/her team) opinion may be included.

The July document is also expected to present an economic roadmap, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called the ‘Amrit Kaal’. An official with knowledge of the matter said, “The January review will be a pre-budget review. It will mention the economic scenario and prospects for the financial year 2023-24 and other relevant data.

The July document will be forward-looking as an economic roadmap. It is understood that in the January review, an estimate of 6 to 6.5 per cent real GDP growth for FY24 can be revealed.

Another official said it was not clear whether the July document would also be called the Economic Survey. “It may not be tabled in Parliament. But it will present the medium-term outlook of the economy and will also mark the beginning of talks for the 2024 general budget.

For the January review, the Chief Economic Adviser and his team do not have complete data for the current financial year as the financial year ends on March 31. However, the Office for National Statistics will release advance estimates for FY2023 in early January to help the finance ministry prepare the budget. The interim figures for the year will be released only till May 31.

Ditto with the data on fiscal deficit, current account deficit, inflation, consumption, vehicle sales, etc. for the full year. All these figures for the current financial year come only after the Economic Survey is presented in Parliament in January.

The data for the entire fiscal year 2023 will be available in the July vision paper and will act as an economic roadmap. This is not the first time that two economic papers will be presented by the Chief Economic Advisor. In 2017, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian also presented the Economic Survey in two parts in January and September.

The Economic Survey, to be presented in January, may mention India’s handling of two years of the pandemic, the current geopolitical constraints, the strengths and weaknesses of the economy and the lessons learned from it. Nageswaran is known for his realistic and on-the-ground assessment of the Indian economy and global macroeconomic situation and the same can be seen in the January and July papers.